On 7 October 2026 Porsche presented its new strategy Sportwagenschmiede ’35 at its Capital Markets Day: a mid-term group return on sales of 10 to 15%, revenue of €41 to 45bn and a break-even below 200,000 cars. We have run the plan against Porsche’s own reporting. Six findings matter.
- Price has already done the heavy lifting. Revenue per delivery rose 13.6% between the first halves of 2025 and 2026 while deliveries fell 16.5%. On that run-rate, €41bn of revenue is reachable at today’s volume. €45bn is not.
- The most quoted levers are smaller than they read. The “20% higher average selling price” covers the top 10,000 cars: €0.6bn, 1.7% of revenue. The “45% more D and E segment” counts derivatives, not cars. The 10% material saving is measured against the old plan, not today’s cost.
- Porsche’s own arithmetic implies about 290,000 cars. 20% fewer derivatives times 30% more sales per derivative is 4% above 2025 volume and 26% above the 2027 trough the CFO has guided to. The product chapter points to the top of the margin range, the finance chapter to the bottom. Both cannot hold.
- The margin lives in the cars above break-even. At a 200,000 break-even Porsche sells about 40,000 cars above the line in 2026. On our calibration a 10% return on sales needs 275,000 deliveries. A 15% return on sales needs 340,000, more than Porsche has ever sold, or a break-even nearer 170,000. Two hundred thousand is the easy part.
- The cost programme gets Porsche towards 10%, not to 15%. The named levers are worth about €2.0bn gross by 2030/31. Wage drift, elevated depreciation and the headwinds on Porsche’s own slide take half of it. The net €1bn is worth two points of return on sales: most of the gap to 10%, but only little of the gap to 15%.
- The volume rests mostly on two cars in the last two years. With China below 10% of sales, the rest of the world must add about 55,000 cars. The Cayenne can supply 10,000 to 15,000. The rest is the electric 718 from 2028 and the new B-segment SUV from 2029. Before 2028 the margin moves only with price and the existing lines.
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